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Football advisoryLisbon Private and confidential · illustrative throughout

The sentence the last three advisers would not write down

Eighteen years inside clubs, in recruitment and sporting direction. Boards do not need another report; they need the sentence the last three advisers would not write down.

18years inside clubs
4countries
5seasons as sporting director
0clients named on this site
Exhibit 1

Squad cost

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Wages plus transfer amortisation, against revenue, against peers. It is the single most predictive number in club finance and most clubs below the top division carry it only as a wage bill, which hides the half of the cost that is already committed.

Squad cost against revenue This clubDivision median
0 25 50 75 100 S−4 S−3 S−2 S−1 Now
Squad cost as a share of revenue, five seasons. The club against the median of its division.

Method

Seventy per cent is the line UEFA drew, and it is a reasonable one at any level: above it a bad season stops being a sporting problem and becomes a solvency problem.

Exhibit 2

Spend by position

Spend by position This clubDivision median
GK CB FB CM W ST
Where the money goes, as a share of squad cost. The club against the division median, position by position.

Method

The finding is almost never the total. It is the shape: this club spends a division-leading share on central midfield and a bottom-three share on centre-backs, and has conceded more goals than anybody above it for three seasons.

Exhibit 3

Academy productivity

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Not how many players reach a professional contract somewhere — that number flatters everybody. The share of your own first team's minutes played by players you trained, against clubs of your size.

Club-trained minutes
This club 6% Peer A 19% Peer B 16% Peer C 14% Peer D 11% Peer E 9%
Share of first-team minutes played by club-trained players. The club against five comparable clubs, last season.

Definition

Club-trained means three or more years at the club between the ages of fifteen and twenty-one. It is the standard definition and it is deliberately stricter than “came through the academy”, which every club defines in the way that suits it.

Exhibit 4

Decision rights

Written as it actually operates, then as it should. Almost every recruitment problem I am called about turns out to live in the first column.

Decision As it operates today As it should operate
Identify targets Manager, informally, plus whoever an agent reached first Recruitment department, against a written profile per position
Agree the budget Never explicitly — discovered when an offer is refused Board, once a season, in writing, with a window contingency
Approve a signing President, in the last week of the window Sporting director, within the agreed budget and profile
Veto a signing Everybody believes they can. In practice, whoever speaks last Board, on budget only. Not on football judgement
Set the wage ceiling Case by case, which is how the 6.1× spread happened Written banding by position and age, reviewed annually
Change the manager President alone, usually within 48 hours of a defeat Board, against criteria agreed at appointment, not at 3–0 down

Method

Nobody is lying when they describe the process differently. They are describing the part of it they can see, and the fact that three descriptions do not reconcile is itself the finding.

Exhibit 6

Casework

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Why there are no names

No client is named anywhere on this site. Almost none will consent, and the ones who would consent are usually the ones whose boards are least stable — so a page of logos would tell you something true about my clients' governance and nothing about my work. What follows is anonymised to the division and the season, with the numbers intact. If you want a reference, ask me in a conversation and I will arrange one privately.

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